2024 Review and 2025 Optimism
Our second annual set of predictions and postmortems
2024 Year in Review
2024 has been a monumental year—not just for us, but for the world at large. From a closely contested presidential election to escalating global conflicts, from the Paris Olympics to SpaceX’s jaw-dropping feat of catching a rocket with its chopsticks, this year has been anything but ordinary. As we reflect on these transformative events, we also look back on a year of growth, learning, and impact at Hawk Hill Ventures. This marks our 12th and final post of 2024, a year we’ll remember as one of bold moves and incredible moments.
Looking back
In 2024, we reviewed over 300 deals, met with over 100 founders and made 13 investments. Browserbase closed pre-seed, seed and series A financing rounds all in 2024! These are really exciting but it isn’t fair to just pat ourselves on the back. How did we do on our predictions from last year?
George’s 2024 predictions
2024 is the year of fintech - Grade: A
Fintech has far outperformed the broader market with market leaders like Affirm up over 50%, Dave up almost 10X, SoFi up over 60% and more, we can confidently call this one correct. VC funding for fintech hasn’t increased a ton but overall the market reception for this category of company has improved tremendously.
VC contraction is just beginning - Grade: B-
2022 to 2023 saw a massive contraction in overall capital raised by VC firms and number of active funds. That trend continued through 2024 but not at nearly as substantial a rate (Source).
The groundhog will see his shadow - Grade: F
Puxatawny Phil did not see his shadow, unfortunately.
Paul’s 2024 predictions
Design-to-code AI tools gain mainstream adoption - Grade: A-
It turns out AI is really good at code generation! In the original prediction, I specifically called out v0 , and since then it has become much more popular for developers building frontend MVPs. I’ll go with an A- for this because it isn’t really design-to-code, but idea-to-code, as people are describing their ideas to Claude and getting entire applications designed and built for them.
Early stage venture has its best year of the decade - Grade: B+
If George gave himself a B-, I’m going with a B+ here! While total capital raised by funds was down y/y, capital deployed was up! We saw some amazing companies formed across many categories in 2024, and I’ve never been more thrilled by the opportunity + true disruption being driven by these ambitious founders.
49ers win the superbowl! - Grade: F
In classic niners fashion, we choked in overtime and could not pull it off. I’m not getting my hopes up again this year.
Looking ahead
Rather than adding another round of predictions here, we will take a moment to build on Paul’s memo, The Art of Consequential Choices.
“Perhaps the key isn’t to seek perfect decisions, but to make thoughtful choices that align with who we are, while accepting the inherent uncertainty of every path we choose. In the end, life is much more about the journey than the destination anyways.”
As we reflect on these words, we’re reminded of the power of embracing calculated risks—balancing thoughtful decision-making with the acceptance that uncertainty is part of every worthwhile endeavor. This mindset has been central to our growth this year and continues to guide us as we look ahead.
2025 is shaping up to be an exciting year for us, with new directions and opportunities that we’re eager to share soon. Stay tuned—we can’t wait to take you along on this journey.